Talk at MSRI on Learning on Networks (joint with Sly and Tamuz)

Last month at MSRI I gave a talk titled:

Interacting Probability Experts on Networks

This talk is based on this preprint with Allan Sly and Omer Tamuz. 

A nice way to think about the results of the paper is as follows:

Consider a social network of probability experts who try to predict
the outcome of the next election.
When experts meet at an MSRI workshop they each state who is the more
likely candidate to win in their view and then they update their own
private probability regarding the winner given what they've heard.

This type of model has been studied extensively in theoretical
economics. The main results proved in the economics literature concern
the question of the convergence of opinions: do all experts end up
agreeing on who is the more likely candidate to win?

 Our new results resolve major challenges in
economics by establishing conditions for convergence to the correct
answer.